Trade Expectancy & R-Multiple Calculator
Win rate alone doesn't tell you if a system makes money. Enter your win rate and your average win and loss, and get expectancy per trade (in dollars and in R) plus your reward-to-risk, profit factor, breakeven win rate, and Kelly stake.
One trade tells you almost nothing. The next could go either way. Expectancy is the average outcome of a trade once your edge plays out over hundreds of them. Get it positive and stay disciplined, and the math does the rest; get it negative and no amount of position-sizing or willpower will save the account. This tool turns your win rate and your average win and loss into that one number.
- What it does
- Turns a system into expected value
- Inputs
- Win rate, average win, average loss
- Core output
- Expectancy per trade ($ and R)
- Also shows
- Reward:risk, profit factor, Kelly
- Best for
- Journaling and picking a system
Try it yourself
Enter your win rate and your average winning and losing trade. The tool returns your expectancy per trade in dollars and in R, the win rate you need just to break even, your profit factor, and the Kelly stake, and tells you plainly whether the system has an edge.
Over 100 trades that adds up to about $5,000 in expected profit and loss, before fees and slippage.
Positive expectancy. At a 1.50:1 reward-to-risk your breakeven win rate is 40.0%, and you're winning 50.0%, above the line, so this system makes money over a large number of trades.
| Reward : risk | 1.50 : 1 |
| Expectancy per $1 risked | 0.25 R |
| Breakeven win rate | 40.0% |
| Profit factor | 1.50 |
| Kelly stake (full) | 16.7% |
Profit factor is gross profit ÷ gross loss over many trades. The Kelly stake is the theoretical bankroll fraction that maximizes long-run growth for this edge. Most traders use a fraction of it (a quarter or less) because full Kelly is very volatile, and a negative value means there is no edge to stake.
Educational tool, not trading advice. Expectancy is the average result of one trade given the numbers you enter; it assumes those averages hold and does not predict any single trade, account for fees or slippage, or recommend what to trade. Past results never guarantee future ones. Futures trading carries a substantial risk of loss.
How expectancy works
Expectancy weighs your wins and losses by how often each happens. Win big but rarely, or small but often. Either can come out ahead. What matters is the blend.
1: Pull your win rate
From your trading journal, what fraction of trades close green? Enter it as a percent. If you don’t have history yet, test a number you think you can hit. The tool shows you what it has to clear.
2: Add your averages
Enter your average winning trade and average losing trade in dollars. Their ratio is your reward-to-risk (R); together with the win rate they decide whether the system makes money.
3: Read your edge
Expectancy is what one trade is worth on average. Positive means the system makes money over many trades; the tool also gives the win rate you’d need just to break even at your current reward-to-risk.
The formula is expectancy = (win rate × average win) − (loss rate × average loss). Divide that by your average loss and you get expectancy in R: the average return on every dollar you put at risk.
Worked example
A 50% win rate with a $300 average win and a $200 average loss works out to (0.50 × $300) − (0.50 × $200) = $150 − $100 = $50 of expectancy per trade. Positive expectancy means the system makes money over a large number of trades.
Win rate is only half the story
A high win rate feels good but says nothing about profit on its own. These two systems both make money, yet they look nothing alike. One wins less than half the time. Expectancy is what lets you compare them on equal footing.
| Rule | Low win rate, let winners run | High win rate, take quick profits |
|---|---|---|
| Example | 40% win rate, 3 : 1 reward-to-risk | 65% win rate, 0.8 : 1 reward-to-risk |
| Breakeven win rate | 25% (1 ÷ (1 + 3)) | 55.6% (1 ÷ (1 + 0.8)) |
| Expectancy per $1 risked | +0.60 R | +0.17 R |
| What it feels like | Many small losses, the odd big winner | Frequent wins, the occasional painful loss |
Flip the inputs in the calculator and watch the breakeven win rate move: bigger winners lower the bar you have to clear, smaller ones raise it. That trade-off, not win rate alone, is your edge.
From expectancy to a funded account
A positive edge is the starting point; sizing it to survive the variance is the next step. Even a profitable system strings together losing trades, and on a funded or evaluation account a bad run can hit the maximum drawdown before the edge ever pays off. Know your expectancy, then size each trade to stay inside those floors.
Frequently asked questions
Have an edge? Trade it on a funded account.
Once your expectancy is positive, the job is to execute it consistently. Pick the evaluation that matches how you trade and put the edge to work on our capital.
Browse evaluationsAccount sizes and risk parameters are subject to change.
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